May 2023

SGV thought leadership on pressing issues faced by chief executives in today’s economic landscape. Articles are published every Monday in the Economy section of the BusinessWorld newspaper.
29 May 2023 Maria Kathrina S. Macaisa-Peña

Rethinking value: The evolution of consumer spending (Second Part)

Second of three partsPeople are buying less and/or buying better in various ways, a trend that is creating new consumption patterns. While consumption is still crucial for economic growth, companies will need to adapt as customers increasingly prefer experiences and digital goods over tangible items. To remain competitive, companies will need to know what is causing those changes, how they will affect their goods and services, and what future success will look like as redefined by evolving consumer needs.With consumer spending such a large source of economic growth, the consumer is truly king. While it has become widely accepted that consumption drives growth, two years of lockdowns have left a lasting impression on consumer preferences. According to the EY Future Consumer Index, which surveys over 21,000 consumers in 27 countries, many consumers have developed simpler, less consumerist values as a result of learning to live with less during the height of the pandemic. Whether by preference or circumstance, we’ve seen the Filipino consumer become more selective in where and how they spend their money. With consumers demonstrating a decreasing appetite for spending, businesses are faced with the opportunity to redefine the concept of growth and how to measure it.In the first part of this article, we discussed the drivers that could reshape consumption patterns and the significant changes in said patterns that are predicted to occur over the next few years. In this second part, we discuss the factors affecting drivers of growth and their implications for consumer companies.DRIVERS AFFECTING PERCEPTIONS OF GROWTHTraditionally, businesses are evaluated by how much they can increase their revenue and profit margins, while entire economies are measured by how much they can grow their GDP. This makes changes in consumer values and spending habits crucial to their success. The measurements used to gauge development and growth will inevitably change as the foundations of consumption change as well.Growth defines progress; strong GDP growth or increases in revenue both indicate that things are moving in the right direction, and when they are declining, they raise red flags. However, the importance of growth is being questioned, with increasing pressure to switch national development indicators from financial measurements to a “well-being economy,” which measures success by the well-being of the environment as well as consumers.Wealth and well-being have long been correlated with each another, and focusing on well-being instead of assuming that wealth itself delivers well-being creates a significant change in how economies develop. This is being increasingly reflected in the development of business strategies. Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) concerns are further influencing investment choices, and ESG goals are being reported more often alongside financial ones.The EY Future Consumer Index identified the following drivers that could reshape existing perceptions of growth and progress.Alternative business models. As resources become scarcer, investments are being driven to find alternatives. This will open up new opportunities, reducing related costs and delivering a new wave of goods and services as a result of rising technologies, data proliferation, alternate food sources, and renewable energy.Immersive virtual economies. As consumers spend more time and money online, alternative digital economies are emerging and becoming larger, more numerous, and more complex. This will open up new opportunities for the creation of value-utilizing digital assets or currencies that are transferable between the real world and the virtual one.Well-being economy. Alternative metrics that produce better social and environmental results are beginning to replace the emphasis on using financial growth and wealth to measure progress and development. There is also the previously mentioned increasing pressure to replace metrics like GDP with ones that instead focus on enhancing the well-being of the environment and the general populace.Social evaluation. Algorithms that monitor factors such as social conduct, consumer spending patterns, media consumption, and credit history can produce holistic and comprehensive ratings that reflect the social value of individuals and organizations. As these scores become more widely used, they may be used to determine who has access to financial, travel, and healthcare privileges.Converging public and private services. The gap between businesses and governments is narrowing as corporations use resources and infrastructure for functions previously performed by the public sector, such as taking back and recycling waste, providing healthcare or education, or using social media for emergency communications. Local fashion corporations in particular have employed ongoing recycling initiatives, incentivizing their customers to adopt more circular lifestyles.IMPLICATIONS FOR CONSUMER COMPANIESThe previously discussed factors show that simply measuring financial growth may not be sufficient anymore when it comes to measuring overall progress. For example, value creation will shift away from physical economies and toward virtual economies due to the scarcity of certain resources and the growing availability of others. Non-financial goals will take precedence over hard currency, pushing back the impact on time, people, and the environment.The well-being of our planet and its inhabitants will be combined with financial security and economic growth on national agendas. The demographic dividend that has sustained economic advancement for centuries will be undermined by declining population growth, while technology may result in shorter workweeks and the need for new welfare programs.In the last part of this article, we discuss how redefining success will reshape business as we know it and how companies can further understand changing consumer expectations.  This article is for general information only and is not a substitute for professional advice where the facts and circumstances warrant. The views and opinions expressed above are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of SGV & Co.Maria Kathrina S. Macaisa-Peña is a business consulting partner and the consumer products and retail sector leader of SGV & Co.

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22 May 2023 Maria Kathrina S. Macaisa-Peña

Rethinking value: The evolution of consumer spending (First Part)

First of three partsConsumer spending serves as the cornerstone of the world economy and society, and both businesses and governments depend on it. It currently accounts for more than half (60%) of the world’s GDP, according to the Global Economy, an online database that compiles over 500 indicators for more than 200 countries since 1960. In the Philippines, private consumption accounted for 75.4% of nominal GDP in December 2022.When consumers spend, the economy grows; when they do not, the economy shrinks — showing us how the consumer is truly king. Even during a recession, consumers always manage to find a way to spend their way back to growth, with methods employed for recovery nearly always centering on getting consumers to spend more money by lowering debt payments and raising wages.Two years of lockdowns in particular have left a lasting impression on consumer preferences. As much as 54% of consumers have noticed changes in their values and outlook on life, according to the EY Future Consumer Index, which surveys over 21,000 consumers in 27 countries. Many consumers have developed simpler, less consumerist values as a result of learning to live with less. An increasing number of reselling, renting, and repair services made possible by technological platforms and new business models also enable consumers to restrict their consumption without affecting their lives.The pursuit of economic growth is also receiving more criticism, with questions raised about the potential social and environmental consequences of economic expansion. Consumption is under pressure due to current macroeconomic instability, rising interest rates and continuously higher than average inflation rates. This in turn is reducing the appetite for consumers to spend their way out of a crisis, possibly redefining the concept of growth and how to measure it.CHANGING CONSUMER BEHAVIORFor many years, encouraging people to consume more has been the source of growth. The introduction of new products, seasonal fashion, bigger portions, and an abundance of options have previously increased consumer spending. However, with increasing signs of consumption fatigue, brands must reevaluate their value proposition to motivate consumers to consume better instead of consuming more.At the same time, consumption is not going anywhere; people still need to eat and drink, although they may purchase food and drink in various ways. Clothing and other necessities will still be in demand, though perhaps in less quantity. Even though consumer aspirations may be less centered on tangible objects, they will still have goals that depend on products and services.The Future Consumer Index identified five drivers that could reshape consumption patterns:Household evolution. With the increasing number of single-person and single-parent homes, household sizes are decreasing. According to a study funded by the World Health Organization and conducted by the Department of Health (DoH) and the University of the Philippines-National Institutes of Health, the number of solo parents in the Philippines is currently estimated at 14 million to 15 million. Longer life expectancies, alling fertility rates, and children staying at home longer also contribute to evolving household compositions, creating new consumption patterns in the types and volumes of products purchased.Experiences over products. Spending on material things will reach a saturation point as consumption rises, lowering the value of tangible commodities. Instead, consumers will start to spend their discretionary income on activities that enrich their lifestyles through experiences.Extended product lifecycles. Companies and customers are under increasing pressure to improve and repair items instead of replacing them. The frequency of new product introductions will decline as the concept of “planned obsolescence” gives way to the “right to repair,” and repair or enhancement services will create new revenue streams.Digital goods and services. With more time spent online, consumers find less need to own or use physical goods and services. While many essential needs will continue to be met physically, the growth of digital goods and services is expanding consumer spending and opening up new possibilities for innovation and value creation.Impact transparency. Consumer awareness of the broader effects of the goods and services they use — on both people and the planet — will only continue to increase. More readily available product information will affect the decisions they make.THE FUTURE OF CONSUMPTION PATTERNSSignificant changes in consumption patterns are predicted to occur over the next few years, according to learnings from the EY Future Consumer Index.Consumption of physical goods as a percentage of total consumption will drop. Less tangible consumables are seeing an increase in consumer preference. In particular, the total amount of physical products will decline as a result of consumers choosing experiences, digital products, and longer product life cycles.Asset-light lifestyles will change basket and product sizes. In a future world when being frugal is commended, less will be more. Everything will be available for rent or subscription, and fluctuating household sizes will determine how much people buy. Bulk purchasing will decline as the number of one-person homes rises, while the practice of purchasing better quality items instead of more and renting the remainder will increase as consumers reevaluate whether they really need certain products.Simplicity and transparency will enable consumer choices. Consumers will be able to cut through complexity with the help of artificial intelligence (AI), enabling purchase decisions to be defined by seamless convenience as much as price. However, consumers will also make decisions that consider the impact of those decisions on their values. They might not give as much thought to daily essentials as long as the items meet expectations in terms of price and use, but consumers will prefer to invest their time and money in the goods and services they genuinely value.In the second part of this article, we discuss the factors affecting drivers of growth and their implications for consumer companies. This article is for general information only and is not a substitute for professional advice where the facts and circumstances warrant. The views and opinions expressed above are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of SGV & Co.Maria Kathrina S. Macaisa-Peña is a business consulting partner and the consumer products and retail sector leader of SGV & Co.

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15 May 2023 Randall C. Antonio

ChatGPT: A versatile AI model (Second Part)

Second of two partsWhen ChatGPT 3.5 was released last year, it made global headlines for its ability to perform tasks such as analyzing professional contracts and complex spreadsheets. ChatGPT is a rapidly evolving text-based artificial intelligence (AI) that facilitates “human” interactions via its natural language responses. Despite its nascency, ChatGPT has already solidified its presence in various industries. Its myriad of functions (e.g., content creation, data analysis, and code generation) can help organizations enhance their products and services, streamline work processes, and refine customer service.However, many are also deeply concerned about its use in business, education and various other sectors. In the first part of this article, we discussed the science behind Generative Pre-Trained Transformer (GPT), hot topics regarding its human aspect, its response biases, and potential business applications. In this second part, we discuss the practical ways ChatGPT can be used in business and the potential risks it presents.PRACTICAL BUSINESS USE CASESWith the ability of AI to automate several tasks, businesses can reduce their labor costs while simultaneously enhancing workflows. ChatGPT’s flexibility can support and possibly even enhance various corporate functions such as customer service, data analytics, sales and marketing, and finance.Customer service. Given its text-based nature, ChatGPT can leverage its ability to customize responses based on user prompts to facilitate a seamless user experience. The program’s versatility means that it can be incorporated into different platforms such as chatbots, e-mail, and SMS. ChatGPT can provide round-the-clock support, potentially becoming instrumental in the banking, healthcare and information technology (IT) industries. Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) can capitalize on AI by setting up a chatbot that can interface with customers without needing human moderation. Since the AI will continue to evolve through repeated customer interactions, the company can make use of the data for continuous improvement.Data analysis. ChatGPT has a wealth of information to draw on, potentially making it an asset for tasks such as market research, research and development, and financial forecasts. Businesses will be able to analyze data more efficiently given its comprehensive set of information. A practical example would be ChatGPT’s capacity to break down complex code and generate bug fixes.Sales and marketing. Sales and marketing are corporate functions that require a more personalized approach, and ChatGPT can address this by utilizing its natural language model to create bespoke solutions. Apart from generating SEO-friendly keywords to outlining drafts, ChatGPT can also produce personalized e-mails, blogs and video ideas.BUSINESS RISKSDespite ChatGPT’s potential for streamlining operations, it can pose risks for organizations. Given the nature of this AI and how it can evolve (i.e., it analyzes large data sets on the internet before generating a response based on the user prompt), security, accuracy and fairness are paramount concerns.A potential pitfall for the AI lies in its primary competency — that it can facilitate more “human-like” interactions since humans are prone to error and subject to different biases. Its very strength can prove to be its weakness, since the conveniences it affords can also facilitate the spread of disinformation, ethical issues and copyright disputes.Data accuracy. OpenAI, the company behind the program, acknowledged that the software produced erroneous and/or biased content. One of the program’s limitations is that its learning model was programmed in 2021, which means that it has little-to-no knowledge of developments since then. It is also worth mentioning that not all online information is accurate, proving to be a substantial constraint for ChatGPT. People have even claimed that the AI can “hallucinate” because it has populated user queries with false information, such as listing down incorrect credentials for public individuals.Cybersecurity and data privacy. Its online nature makes ChatGPT vulnerable to cybersecurity attacks that make it a potential risk to businesses. The program can endanger one’s privacy because it can sift through a vast range of data accessible online. Businesses will have to deliberate whether the technology’s benefits outweigh its potential security risks. They must also be vigilant when it comes to the security of both themselves as well as their clients.Bias. In the first part of the article, we discussed how ChatGPT has a category of answers that consists of subjective responses. This inherent bias may deter corporations from assimilating it into their established work systems. There was a case wherein ChatGPT was asked which airline passengers could pose a risk, and it asserted that individuals who traveled to North Korea, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria were the more prominent dangers. The learning model is continuously evolving, but it still needs some form of arbitration to avoid ethics and bias-related issues.Ethics. In academia, there have been longstanding, divergent opinions when it comes to technological advancements, ranging from the archaic decision of whether smartphones should be allowed in class, to more current concerns, such as the ethics of using AI to accomplish assignments and/or examinations. The jury is still out as institutions have varied responses, with some universities mandating the return of in-person exams to safeguard against cheating, whereas others have started to delineate AI-specific guidelines. Plagiarism, however, remains a principal concern. The convenience of AI may exacerbate issues when it comes to the originality of work, whether in academia or corporations.Intellectual property and copyright. In light of ongoing discussions that ChatGPT can replace, or at the very least, assist with certain types of work, it is vital to understand the legal repercussions. With copyright protection, the US Copyright Office will not register work that was generated by an AI. In accordance with US law, AI-generated output will either be a claimless work available in the public domain or considered a derivative work of the tools that the AI was developed upon. This raises the question as to who the true owner is — the creators of ChatGPT or the user for whom the output was generated.AI IS HERE TO STAYAs one of many developing AIs, ChatGPT offers advantages and risks for personal users and organizations. It is also apparent that human intervention is necessary to truly leverage its benefits and mitigate its intrinsic shortcomings.With the current technological climate though, it seems that businesses will no longer be able to turn a blind eye to the program. Similarly, OpenAI is not the only company making headlines when it comes to artificial intelligence as other companies are racing to develop their own versions. One thing is clear — AI is here to stay.Technology is at the forefront of business change and learning how to leverage it is critical. ChatGPT has jolted the corporate landscape, presenting both challenges and opportunities for organizations. For companies considering the use of AI, it is vital to evaluate its role in their respective ecosystems. Ultimately, the biggest question is whether hypothetical returns will be enough to mitigate the potential risks. This article is for general information only and is not a substitute for professional advice where the facts and circumstances warrant. The views and opinions expressed above are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of SGV & Co.Randall C. Antonio is a technology consulting partner of SGV & Co.

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08 May 2023 Randall C. Antonio

ChatGPT: A versatile AI model (First Part)

First of two partsIn November, ChatGPT 3.5 was released — and took the world by storm. ChatGPT touted its ability to create essays, write computer code, pass board exams, create business plans, and many other tasks such as, but not limited to, analyzing professional contracts and complex spreadsheets.The ChatGPT 3.5 architecture follows ChatGPT 3, which was launched in 2020 and is now being used by many large organizations such as Microsoft Corp., Google LLC, and, Inc. for chatbots, virtual assistants and other AI-powered applications.ChatGPT, or the Chat-Generative Pre-Trained Transformer algorithm, was developed by OpenAI. OpenAI is an artificial intelligence (AI) research laboratory based in the US established in late 2015. It aims to promote and develop friendly AI, running on the fifth most powerful supercomputer in the world.Close to six months after the launch of ChatGPT 3.5, OpenAI also launched ChatGPT 4. It promises to be even more powerful and versatile than its predecessor, improving on the weaknesses and limitations of ChatGPT 3 (which uses a relatively small database to train on). ChatGPT 4 uses a much larger 50 terabytes of high-quality training data through a combination of automatic and manual curation methods. This allows ChatGPT 4 to deliver better conversational AI applications, understand context, and generate more natural-sounding text. It is powerful enough to detect and respond to changes in tone and sentiment, and unlike ChatGPT 3, can also make images.THE SCIENCE BEHIND GPTGenerative Pre-Trained Transformer (GPT) is a type of large language model (LLM) neural network that can perform various and complex natural language processing tasks. It is a type of a deep learning algorithm that uses a transformer network (a sequence to sequence translator architecture used for language models and computer vision), specifically developed to train from large quantities of unlabeled text using unsupervised learning, analyzing patterns in the data set to generate human-like text in response to input.LLMs need access to large datasets of text called training data. Such data come from a variety of sources including books, articles, websites, academic papers, social media posts, blogs, news articles, and other online and offline text sources — without any explicit supervision or guidance on what to learn, except to automatically discover patterns and relationships in the data and use them. ChatGPT uses this data to generate more natural-sounding text.THE HUMAN ASPECTWhile there are many positive opportunities presented by ChatGPT, ongoing debates in the tech community center on the threats posed by the larger AI. ChatGPT is indeed revolutionary, but it also gave us a taste of the real risks and dangers.Some of these hot topics relating to the human aspect include social manipulation, job losses, social surveillance, gender and race biases, socio-economic inequality, weakening ethics and goodwill, financial crises, and a dangerous arms race of AI-powered weaponry.RESPONSE BIASESChatGPT responses can be categorized into those that are mathematically or scientifically accurate, i.e., the answer to 1 + 1, or that water is liquid at room temperature. The other category consists of subjective responses, i.e., whether red is a better color than maroon, or whether certain politicians are performing better than their predecessors.It is worth noting that there have been concerns about the potential biases in the training data sets used for language models like ChatGPT. Biases in the data can lead to biased outputs, which could have negative consequences in real-world applications. ChatGPT, just like humans, can still provide subjective, inaccurate, or wrong answers that are biased. When these biases cross ethical boundaries because of the quality and manual curation of the training data, this means that such biases can sometimes cause more societal harm than good.BUSINESS APPLICATIONSRest assured, ChatGPT (and AI) will be here to stay, continuing to evolve and advance at lightspeed. It will continue to highlight that the world we live in will be significantly different as early as next year. Many businesses are scrambling to understand both the implications and opportunities provided by ChatGPT to their organizations.ChatGPT as applied in business could, in a lot of ways, improve the bottom line, enhance efficiency, and transform customer experience while reducing costs. Some use case examples for ChatGPT are chatbots, content creation, code development, fraud and abnormality detection, language translation, voice assistants, and hyper-personalization for recommendation engines. There are also potentially vast opportunities, along with accompanying risks, in sectors such as education, creative services, professional services, content creation, and many others.Many more technically adept companies are already finding amazing use cases of ChatGPT and AI that end up disrupting traditional businesses.TRANSFORMING THE FUTURE THROUGH AIThere is no doubt that ChatGPT is still in its infancy stage, which simply means that there is much more to expect. Our lives will change, and the rapid rate of this change will be like no other compared to all human history. Just like electricity and water, ChatGPT is also expected to become a mainstream utility. It will be much faster, cheaper, more accurate, and eventually, some even say it will be sentient. It will become a necessary and unavoidable part of our daily lives.According to a report from Opus Research, 35% of consumers would like to see more enterprises incorporate AI tools like chatbots, whereas 48% of them are indifferent as to whether an AI or a human were to assist them. While not the majority, a considerable percentage of people are seeing the benefits of AI. As this technology only continues to get better, many jobs and traditional businesses will need to transform or be at risk of being displaced. Industries and processes will be disrupted, and new opportunities and applications will surface. The only question will be: are we ready for it?In the second part of this article, we discuss the practical ways ChatGPT can be used in business and the potential risks it presents. This article is for general information only and is not a substitute for professional advice where the facts and circumstances warrant. The views and opinions expressed above are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of SGV & Co.Randall C. Antonio is a technology consulting partner of SGV & Co.

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01 May 2023 Rossana A. Fajardo

Reshaping the social contract

Since before the pandemic, the social contract defining the interaction between employers and employees has been changing. Rapid advancements in automation as well as the increasing significance of commitments to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) and diversity, equity, and inclusion (DE&I) have all contributed to this shift. The pandemic only furthered the shift by elevating elements such as employee wellbeing and organizational purpose.Employees today show a preference for companies that support their beliefs regarding social responsibility while providing flexibility and specialized opportunities for professional growth. They also want a fair compensation system that includes a transparent rewards and recognition program, which is understandable given the current economic landscape. According to the EY 2022 Work Reimagined Survey, the chance to increase their compensation is the main driver of job switching among employees.Companies are becoming more aware of these expectations and the need to address them. Two-thirds of CEO respondents from the latest EY CEO Outlook Survey agree that pandemic-related working habits are becoming more important for lowering staff attrition and attracting new talent. However, according to the EY 2022 Work Reimagined Survey, only one-third of companies are actively changing how they handle these practices, particularly those involving technology, flexible working, and real estate.The EY Center for Board Matters investigated how boards can help reshape the shifting social contract between employers and employees, sharing three ways that boards can support their organizations.LISTENING TO THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING WORKFORCEOrganizations all across the world are aware that Gen Z workers are responsible for a significant portion of the fundamental shifts in employee expectations. Whereas a greater emphasis on sustainability may have been “nice to have” for millennials, it is non-negotiable for Gen Z. Furthermore, this generation embraces and integrates technology into their way of life. As true digital natives, Gen Z is leading the charge in creating the products, customer experiences, and ways of working that are revolutionizing how we live and work. By 2025, Gen Z will account for 27% of the workforce, and employers will depend heavily on Gen Z to actively contribute to the future success of their companies.Boards can take steps to help their organizations realize this potential by collaborating with their Chief Human Resources Officer (CHRO) or a corresponding function to create a connection with younger workers. That entails encouraging relationships built on active listening, two-way dialogue, and a sense of purpose and value. This means finding ways to involve young professionals in decision-making instead of simply passively listening, and allow decision-making based on personal beliefs and preferences. In addition, the scope for collaboration and the resources available to support health and wellbeing must be emphasized. This group must be able to challenge the organization regarding transparency in its operations, its ESG and DE&I activities, and potential inconsistencies between the organization’s commitments and reality.While talent transformation is crucial, CEOs and their boards may want to consider elevating CHRO support to accomplish these essential changes. AN EMPLOYEE EXPERIENCE TAILORED FOR LONG-TERM SUCCESSIt is imperative to pay attention to the right signals and act upon them to make the changes necessary to successfully attract, engage, and retain talent. This requires boards to have a process for monitoring outside trends and their effects on talent. One approach to achieve this is to include external specialists on the board, such as behavioral psychologists or anthropologists.Another crucial step is collaborating to create an employee value proposition that satisfies the needs and preferences of a multigenerational workforce. This should reflect diversity in the fullest sense, including demographic diversity and inclusion, opportunity, and skills application. In order to acknowledge that talent is both a long-term issue and a short-term challenge, boards can also broaden the scope of the compensation committee. In the current labor market, salary plays a major part in influencing decisions. The organization’s compensation strategy must be able to support employee financial wellness in the short term to attract top talent in the long term.PRIORITIZING UPSKILLINGMore CEOs are concentrating on talent retention strategies rather than managing talent acquisition costs as a result of recessionary pressures. Prioritizing the continued usage of technology and upskilling employees is one way they can respond. Boards can collaborate with management in retaining talent by viewing talent development as a process of progressing individuals. Employers can encourage continuous growth by offering employees new opportunities once they reach the peak of a developmental curve, such as pursuing further education or training, which would facilitate the mastery of a new job or skill. However, as change happens more quickly, these developmental curves get shorter, and skills will need to be renewed sooner. Employers must change the way their learning processes deliver skills and experience in order to do it in a more flexible, timely, and engaging manner.RESHAPING SOCIAL CONTRACTS TO EFFECT POSITIVE CHANGEBoards are poised to affect how quickly and urgently firms refresh and reshape their social contracts with employees. They must, however, push management and themselves to use diverse thinking if they are to have the greatest impact on their talent agenda. By doing so effectively, organizations will be able to effect positive change and evolve for the future.On behalf of everyone at SGV, we would like to wish all those who work a Happy Labor Day! This article is for general information only and is not a substitute for professional advice where the facts and circumstances warrant. The views and opinions expressed above are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of SGV & Co.Rossana A. Fajardo is the EY ASEAN business consulting leader and the consulting service line leader of SGV & Co.

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